Sarah Palin Versus Mike Huckabee for 2012 Nomination

Barack Obama isn't even in the White House yet and every major news organization is already polling Republicans to see who should be their party's Presidential nominee 4 years from now.

CNN is the latest. It polled 460 people across the country who are either Republican or are Independents who lean Republican.

The new poll shows Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin in a statistical tie. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is first with 34 percent of respondents saying they are "very likely" to support him in a run for President, but Sarah Palin is in a statistical tie with Huckabee with 32 percent, as the poll has a margin of error or 4.5 percent.

And here is an oddity - “It might come as a surprise to some that Palin does better than Huckabee among GOP men but that Huckabee beats Palin among Republican women,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Palin's strength is also concentrated among older Republicans, but Huckabee may have a slight edge among conservative Republicans."

Among voters who consider themselves born again or evangelical, Huckabee draws more support than Palin, with a 9 point edge. Meanwhile, Palin holds a 7-point advantage among non-born again or evangelical voters.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in third place in the poll, with 28 percent of those questioned saying they are very likely to support him as the GOP nominee in 2012.

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich draws roughly the same level of support as Romney, at 27 percent. Twenty-three percent of those polled say they would be very likely to support Rudy Giuliani if he decides to run again. The former New York City mayor was the national frontrunner in many polls in late 2007, before performing poorly in the early primaries and caucuses. He dropped out of the race for the White House in late January.

Louisana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who's considered a rising star in the GOP, draws support from 19 percent of those surveyed, and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist 7 percent.
“Jindal and Crist are relative unknowns. The fact that they get much less support than the others is likely a function of name recognition rather than a true measure of their potential base of support," says Holland.

So what can we take from this poll?

The Republican are heading back to the base and back to the basics. John McCain, God Love him, was a moderate and the base never trusted him.

Look at the top four of this poll - Huckabee, Palin, Romney and Gingrich - they all appeal to the Conservative base.

If the Republicans want to win in 2012, I think they inherintly understand that, they need to run a stron Conservative campaign and carve out a clear difference from Barack Obama.

Bobby Jindal and Charlie Crist are also Conservative favorites. The only moderate on the list is Rudy Guiliani, who will not get the nomination because of his pro-life stance.

This poll by no means shows us who the nominee might be, there is still way too much time. But it does show us that the Republicans are looking for another Reagan and not another McCain.

Here is more of the poll (and some good news for Sarah Palin):

Although Huckabee wins slightly among the "very likely," if you add in those who were "somewhat likely" to support a candidate - Palin wins.

• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, got a 67% "very/somewhat likely" score.

• Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee: 65%.

• Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney: 61%

• Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani: 57%.

• Former House speaker Newt Gingrich: 52%.

• Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal: 44%.

• Florida Gov. Charlie Crist: 32%.

In other words, Huckabees support is a litle stronger, Palin's is a little broader. BUT, it is still a statistical tie and it is still WAY to early to really mean anything significant.